By Clive Mutame Siachiyako
The election of Donald Trump is totally contrary to that of
Barack Obama in 2008. There was somewhat global excitement to have Obama in the
White House. Almost 8 years down the line the opposite is the case. The world
is too unsure of what to expect to the billionaire US President elect.
When the voting pendulum started showing Trump winning
against Hillary, anxiety gripped investors and market shares plummeted badly.
World leaders received his win with mixed feelings. Their congratulatory
messages carried different underlying tones. Some added cautions e.g. Chinese
Leader said “I hope the US-China relations won’t be confrontational.” Why such
a phobia about Trump? Why is the world scared of him?
There are many reasons why uncertainty is hitting hard on
many people. They are uncertain about key decisions in trade, immigration,
nuclear power, war, etc. Few saw Trump’s winning coming. Pollsters 24 hours
before elections were placing Hillary Clinton on the front and ultimate winner
of the polls. Media coverage gave Hillary serious leverage. But Trump’s
geo-political, trade, immigrants, nuclear, and other foreign policy message are
a scary bunch. It is not clear what will become of the words he uttered during
campaigns on a number of issues that cut across US, EU, Asia, Africa, climate
change and immigration.
The Trump brand that emerged during the run-up to November 8
2016 elections was not an inspiring one to some people and it was bloodcurdling.
It was however appealing to American voters, mostly the middle class [many
commentators suggested]. What did they middle class see than others never saw?
Trump had a populist message that sat well with them. He had a message about
their jobs he felt immigrants were grabbing. He had a message about trade
skewedness that disadvantaged US. He connected well with them in his messages.
How that will turn out in reality is on the waiting list.
Trump was more aggressive on many issues during campaigns for
many people’s liking. He was bashful and tore the opponent with strong words.
He had few kind words for other countries US trades with in raw and finished
products, oil, gas and human capital. On Mexicans he was blunt to tell them
“they don’t send experts to US, but drug dealers, criminals and rapists.”
He made strong statements against Africans and their leaders.
In some media collections, it was reported he called Africans “lazy, good at
sex and theft.” That doesn’t seem to settle well when you hear such a man is
winning an election and as an African leader you have to rub shoulders in some
way. Such anxiety creates Trumphobia that cuts across sectors of life including
economic and social.
People have serious reasons to worry about Trump. He was so
loose in his messages. He rarely applied diplomatic undertones in his messages
even when talking about international issues. People are now scratching their
heads what really to expect from his administration. It is not clear whether
most of the statements were mere campaign rhetoric or they will be made
reality. If most of the things Trump said during campaigns become true, the
world will have tough time with him.
There’s uncertainty on what policies Trump will put in place
on investment, fiscal, structural base policy and trade; all of which have a
telling on how other countries will fit in. All these uncertainties need
healing locally and abroad. They need reassurance to actors in the economy to
help things manifest favourably to US and other countries in different areas.
The world is also watching on the kind of team is going to
come up with. Whether that team has the capacity to quickly bring hope to many
who are so badly worried about Trump elections is also not clear. Too many
questions seeking answers indeed.
A lot of hurt and divisions were created by the style of
campaign exhibited in US. Very strong language, accusations and threats of
arrests or changing systems were made. If you were an investor and you hear
such words, where would you put your money and place your money? It is scary
keeping the money in US most investors intimated. Financial markets reflected
that anxiety in market share fall immediately it came apparent that Trump was
winning.
Trump was more protectionist. Wanting US to be in “front” in
all trade engagements. From UK, to EU to Asia and Africa; US engagement he preferred
them to favour US. That approach is discomforting to other world leaders
looking the number of trade, nuclear, and other agreements in existence. The
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “the fear rhetoric was not welcome.” Most
leaders were caught off guard with Trump winning. Brexit wasn’t a warning
enough that things can go the Trump way rather than Hillary wise.
On climate change, he called it a “hoax” and he pledged to
pull out of some Paris agreements the US committed itself. That will be a very
sad move on climate change gains made so far. If only his advisors would help
him relook and reconsider such actions, the world will be a better place than
taking us several steps backward in climate change.
Breaking down some of the issues like immigration, trade
agreements [e.g. AGOA - African Growth Opportunity Act], nuclear power cues, ISS handling, war in
Syria, siding with Russia on some issues etc. What do we expect from this man?
Pragmatic or diplomatic Trump?
Anti-immigration was his other election campaign pledge. He
emphasised that a wall will be built between US and Mexico and Mexicans will pay
for it. In his bashful tone, he called most Mexicans getting into US as “drug
addicts, rapes and criminals.” Such people should be kept off US soil thanks to
the wall to be built.
He further made statements on getting oil from Middle East,
changing ties with China because China is stealing jobs from US. China to him
is a free-rider that benefited hugely from agreements with US. He preached an anti-globalisation.
The isolationist moves by Trump will have many negative impacts on US and
trading partners. Countries are
interdependent on each other in so many ways. US can’t walk the journey solo.
On changing trade agreements changes, Canada is the most
worried. It is one of the biggest trade partners, so the anxiety is very
genuine. The situation got worse that the Canadian website servicing immigrants
crushed as it became apparent that Trump was winning.
Trump outrageous statements are causing serious phobia,
tension, fear and anxiety that might cost countries trade, business and
investment opportunities. Once in Zambia our late President cut anyhow,
threated investors, made sweeping statements on “infesters” [investors] and we
saw people packing to leave after he won. Construction projects managed by
foreigners were put to a hold. People were sitting on one bum in readiness to
vacate.
People don’t know what to expect from Trump. His team has a
lot to do to ease people’s nerves. To calm worries of investors and make
America an admirable place to do business, pursue academic excellence and other
things. If a new take is picked on to breath confidence in people, things may
turn sour for the world since US has too much influence on what happens in
other countries from trade to nuclear power.
The good hope is that some statements e.g. on Muslims being
banned from entering US are reported to be disappearing from the Trump Website.
It could be that most of his rhetoric was mere campaign gimmicks to attract
voters and win their hearts.
Aspiring to lead a nation requires care in terms of what we
say. Our words have far reaching effects within and beyond borders. Even when
the political environment is too tense to practice sober politics, it is
important to remain a cool head as possible to avoid shocks to our economic,
market shares, investor confidence and other socio-economic systems we need to
realise our pledges to electorates.
